Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
