A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
